Support Test or Breakout Ahead? Bitcoin Hovers at Key Decision Zone

Bitcoin is consolidating around $119,000 after last week’s all-time high above $123,000.

According to a new report from CryptoQuant, current on-chain data presents a mixed outlook, with short-term selling pressure clashing with strong institutional undercurrents. The next move may hinge on whether BTC can hold critical support near $116,000.

Exchange reserves rise, signaling caution

Exchange reserves have risen to their highest level since June 25, suggesting increased selling pressure or profit-taking among short-term holders. Whale and miner deposit activity has picked up since July 18, yet remains modest when compared to distribution during prior market tops. This implies traders are de-risking, but not capitulating.

Meanwhile, the UTXO count—a key long-term holder metric—continues to decline, pointing to steady accumulation and reduced on-chain spending. ETF inflows have also remained firm, with 2025 year-to-date totals nearing $50 billion, reinforcing the broader institutional demand narrative.

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Key level: $116K support

Technically, the $116,000–$116,400 range now acts as immediate support. A break below could open the door to a deeper pullback toward $112K or even $110K. On the flip side, defending this zone would keep the uptrend intact, setting the stage for a renewed push toward $124K–$130K.

CryptoQuant analysts maintain that as long as $110K holds, the broader bullish structure remains valid. With consistent ETF demand and long-term wallet accumulation, the next leg higher—possibly toward $180K by year-end—remains on the table if momentum returns.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.