Bitcoin Enters new Discovery Phase as Profit-Taking Metrics rise and outflows dominate

According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin is entering a new stage of on-chain behavior marked by two key developments: a rare third peak in the SOPR Trend Signal during a single bull cycle and a sustained outflow dominance in exchange flows.

Together, these trends suggest a strengthening conviction among holders and a maturing phase of accumulation, despite short-term volatility.

SOPR trend hits rare third peak

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Trend Signal, a metric that tracks the average profit margin of coins moved on-chain, has now risen for the third time within the same bull cycle — an unprecedented occurrence. This indicates that within just 12 months, Bitcoin holders have seen multiple profitable exit points yet continue to show strong holding behavior.

This metric becomes especially relevant when identifying market shifts. If the SOPR signal’s blue line crosses below its long-term orange trend line, it often flags a transition toward bearish sentiment. As of now, however, the signal remains bullish, indicating that profit-taking has not yet overwhelmed market demand.

Exchange outflows reaffirm long-term confidence

Supporting this trend is the current inflow/outflow ratio for BTC on exchanges, which has dropped to around 0.9 — a level last seen during the 2023 bear market. A ratio below 1 suggests that more Bitcoin is leaving exchanges than entering, a classic signal of accumulation.

READ MORE:

Billionaire Says ‘Sell Your House, Buy Bitcoin’: Fiat Collapse Is Coming

Historically, when this ratio rises above 1.05, it has marked the start of distribution phases or broader corrections. But with long-term holders continuing to absorb supply and outflows dominating, Darkfost suggests the market remains in a favorable spot-driven demand cycle.

Both indicators — the triple SOPR peak and sustained outflows — point to a market where conviction is growing, not waning. While risks remain, these trends suggest that Bitcoin’s next major move may once again defy conventional expectations.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.