Quantum Advances Put Bitcoin’s Security to the Test

Quantum computing is no longer just a theoretical threat to Bitcoin — it’s fast becoming a real one.

IBM aims to launch the world’s first fault-tolerant quantum computer, dubbed Quantum Starling, by 2029. While this timeline might seem distant, experts say the countdown to a cryptographic reckoning has already begun.

Google researcher Craig Gidney recently revealed that quantum machines might be far closer to breaking encryption than previously believed. His study showed that current estimates for cracking RSA keys — a cousin to the elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin — were overly optimistic. Based on his math, ECC might be compromised within a decade, possibly as early as 2030.

Meanwhile, not everyone agrees on how close the danger really is. Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes we’re at least 20 years away from quantum machines powerful enough to threaten Bitcoin. Yet he admits the crypto world may need to eventually migrate funds to quantum-safe addresses, including dormant holdings like Satoshi Nakamoto’s.

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Others urge quicker action. David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, warns that some emerging technologies — like Microsoft’s quantum hardware — may accelerate the timeline to just five years. He claims nearly a third of all BTC sits in vulnerable wallets, and one breach could shatter public trust.

Investor Chamath Palihapitiya echoed those fears late last year, arguing that with enough quantum chips, Bitcoin’s core hashing algorithm could be broken even sooner. He believes developers must begin upgrading now before the threat becomes irreversible.

While quantum computers still face massive engineering hurdles, the race is on to ensure Bitcoin’s defenses are ready before it’s too late.

Alexander Stefanov

With over 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a seasoned content creator and market analyst dedicated to making digital assets more accessible and understandable. He specializes in breaking down complex crypto trends, analyzing market movements, and producing insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and seasoned investors. Alexander has built a reputation for delivering timely and accurate analysis, while keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies, and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm belief that widespread education is key to accelerating global crypto adoption.