US Recession Fears Fuel Market Selloffs as Economic Predictions Diverge

These past few days, fears of a looming U.S. recession triggered sharp selloffs in both tech and crypto stocks.

This came despite efforts from the White House to calm growing economic concerns. JPMorgan economists now estimate a 40% chance of a recession in 2025, a significant increase from their earlier 30% forecast.

Their assessment points to the risks posed by current U.S. policies, which they believe could push the economy into a downturn.

Goldman Sachs also raised its recession risk for the year to 20%, up from 15%, warning that the situation could worsen if the Trump administration sticks to its current approach despite unfavorable data.

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On the other hand, Morgan Stanley lowered its growth expectations, predicting only 1.5% GDP growth for 2025, with inflation likely to remain high.

While concerns mounted, Kevin Hassett, an adviser to President Trump, offered a more optimistic view, suggesting on March 10 that there are reasons to remain positive despite some troubling economic signals. Trump himself downplayed the recession risks, calling the U.S. economy “in transition” during a Fox News interview on March 9.

Adding to the mixed sentiment, Polymarket, a blockchain-based betting platform, pointed to recession odds as one of the most closely watched financial indicators right now, reflecting the uncertainty gripping markets.

Alexander Stefanov