Goldman Sachs strategists, led by Christian Müller-Glissmann, are forecasting greater resilience in the U.S. stock market than many investors expect, suggesting a low probability of a severe recession.
Despite challenges such as higher valuations, mixed economic growth, and policy uncertainty, they believe the strength of the private sector and anticipated monetary easing will help avoid a significant bear market.
Historical trends support this view, showing that major market corrections—defined as declines of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index—have become less frequent since the 1990s. This is attributed to longer business cycles, lower macroeconomic volatility, and proactive central bank interventions.
However, the strategists maintain a neutral stance on asset allocation with a slight preference for riskier assets. This cautious optimism follows recent major sell-offs, where global equities lost over $4 trillion in a week—the largest drop in two years.
The backdrop includes rising costs of U.S. federal debt, which now exceed $1.1 trillion annually, reaching $3 billion a day. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are contributing to these concerns.
After the long-awaited rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the crypto market started showing signs of recovery.
Federal Reserve meetings usually follow a predictable pattern, but this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering was shrouded in uncertainty.
At the Token2049 event on September 18, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warned that upcoming interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve could trigger a major downturn in the crypto market.
Cryptocurrency investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision set for tomorrow.