Inflation in the euro area hit a three-year low, falling to 2.2% in August from 2.6% in July, matching economists' forecasts.
This decline has fuelled speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates in September. Core inflation, which excludes variable items such as energy and food, also fell slightly to 2.8%, again matching expectations.
In response to the inflation news, the euro fell 0.1% against the British pound and rose marginally against the US dollar. Traders are now expecting interest rate cuts from both the ECB and the US Federal Reserve.
ECB chief economist Philip Lane hinted at a potential rate cut, warning that keeping rates too high could prevent inflation from reaching the ECB’s 2% target. However, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel called for a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts.
Market sentiment is leaning towards a probability of a rate cut, with forecasts indicating a 65% probability of a 0.25% cut by the Federal Reserve and an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the ECB. Such reductions could potentially stimulate riskier investments, such as cryptocurrencies, by lowering borrowing costs and increasing liquidity.
However, not everyone is convinced that cutting interest rates will be a simple solution to a complex problem.
The U.S. economy may be closer to a downturn than many realize, according to Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
Morgan Stanley has issued a cautionary outlook on the U.S. dollar, predicting a major decline over the coming year as Federal Reserve rate cuts take hold.
Legendary investor Ray Dalio has issued a stark warning about the trajectory of U.S. government finances, suggesting the country is drifting toward a series of severe economic shocks unless its debt spiral is urgently addressed.
Steve Eisman, the famed investor known for forecasting the 2008 housing collapse, is sounding the alarm—not on overvalued tech stocks or interest rates, but on the escalating risk of global trade disputes.