XRP’s Price Swings: Signs of Strength or a Warning?

XRP’s recent price action has been anything but stable, with short-term charts reflecting a pattern of volatility and underperformance.

Despite a year filled with favorable developments that could have propelled it to new highs, the token has only managed a modest 14.96% gain. Notably, most of these gains were recorded before January 20—the day a pro-crypto U.S. president took office and SEC Chair Gary Gensler, known for his tough stance on digital assets, stepped down. Since then, XRP’s price has fluctuated without significant progress.

However, zooming out presents a starkly different picture. Over the past 12 months, XRP has skyrocketed by 277.50%, and compared to its value before Donald Trump’s re-election, it has surged an even more impressive 385.54%. This growth is most apparent in its market capitalization, which has soared by approximately $107.6 billion, climbing from $34.7 billion to $142.34 billion.

Trump’s victory in November appears to have played a crucial role in this price action. Between November 5 and the present, XRP’s market cap has expanded by an even larger $113.7 billion, jumping from $28.6 billion. Much of this rally has been fueled by optimism—particularly among those who believe that the previous administration, under Gary Gensler’s SEC, stifled the crypto industry through regulatory pressure, with XRP at the center of this battle.

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Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC has had a more consistent influence on XRP’s price than any technological advancements or international deals by the company. While regulatory clarity should, in theory, provide a boost, the token’s reaction to external market forces suggests a more troubling trend.

Cryptocurrencies, including XRP, appear increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts rather than industry-specific news. This has been evident with Bitcoin, which has reacted sharply to economic reports, geopolitical conflicts, and stock market turmoil rather than acting as a stable hedge.

XRP’s trajectory has followed a similar pattern. While it remained stagnant despite Ripple’s global expansion, it saw significant gains on the back of broader market enthusiasm following Trump’s election victory. However, its response to the SEC’s softened stance has been short-lived and subdued, raising questions about whether traders should remain cautious despite the seemingly favorable outlook.

Alexander Stefanov