Will History Repeat? Lessons from 1995 Fed Cuts for Today’s Market

In the summer of 1995, NASA set a new space endurance record with a mission of 84 days, a stark contrast to today's astronauts who may spend eight months in space.

During that same period, the Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, began cutting interest rates—a move that some market analysts think could mirror what’s expected in September.

The 1995 rate cuts were part of a broader economic adjustment that helped avoid a recession and led to notable gains in the stock market. According to Chris Haverland from Wells Fargo Investment Institute, there are parallels between then and now. He suggests that the 1995 experience could offer insights into how the market might respond in the near future.

Following the 1995 rate reductions, S&P 500 companies saw a 12% increase in earnings in the subsequent year, and the index itself climbed over 40% in the following 18 months. Financial stocks were the biggest winners, a trend that Haverland predicts might recur. Technology stocks, which initially led, later stabilized before becoming dominant again.

Despite today’s higher inflation rates and prolonged period of high interest rates, Haverland is hopeful that the U.S. economy will continue to grow and avoid recession through 2025. This positive outlook, combined with improved financial conditions, could bolster corporate earnings and support a strong stock market, especially for high-quality large-cap stocks.

In recent market movements, U.S. stock index futures showed small fluctuations following consumer price data that met expectations, while the 10-year Treasury yield inched up slightly.