Will Cardano Face Another Drop Before Year-End?

Analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that Cardano (ADA) may experience another drop against Bitcoin (BTC) before the year ends, based on historical trends.

Cowen noted that ADA has typically fluctuated between 400 and 4,000 sats relative to Bitcoin, with a tendency for a final decline toward the end of the halving year.

I think #ADA / #BTC will get one more drop before EOY and then go up in 2025.

Showing some stats for comparison…

Nov 2020 low: 583 sats
Nov 2020 high: 995 sats
Dec 2020 low: 503 sats

Nov 2024 low: 470 sats
Nov 2024 high: 903 sats (so far)
Dec 2024 low: ???

If QT were over I… pic.twitter.com/rth0EJ65of

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) November 16, 2024

He explained that the combination of ongoing restrictive monetary policies and the US dollar’s current rally presents bearish conditions for riskier assets like cryptocurrency. Cowen’s analysis suggests that ADA/BTC could drop further before recovering in 2025.

He compared current data to previous years, showing that ADA/BTC has already reached lows of around 470 sats in November 2024, but expects another dip by December, depending on economic factors like the continuation of quantitative tightening (QT) and the rising dollar index (DXY).

This outlook on Cardano aligns with Cowen’s broader perspective on altcoins. He pointed out that the broader altcoin market, measured by the TOTAL3-USDT index, has been struggling to surpass levels last seen in late 2020. This suggests that altcoins, in general, might face further weakness, especially as Bitcoin’s dominance has been on the rise.

While Cowen remains open to the possibility that Bitcoin dominance may have peaked, he cautions that altcoins could continue to face challenges, particularly with the ongoing tightening of financial conditions and increasing yields.