Why This May Isn’t Your Typical ‘Sell and Go’ Scenario

As spring turns into summer, the old market adage “sell in May and go away” resurfaces, sparking the usual debate among investors. But this year, that seasonal wisdom may not hold much weight.

In today’s market — where headlines about monetary policy and global trade take center stage — many analysts say relying on outdated seasonal patterns could be misleading. With uncertainty still looming large, especially around U.S.-China relations and the Fed’s next move, stepping aside just because it’s May might be premature.

“This market is running on a very different script,” says Larry Tentarelli of Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. He points out that over the past decade, the supposed May exit strategy has failed to outperform staying fully invested.

Historically, the idea originated in Britain, where investors would leave the market during the slower summer months and return after a fall horse race. For a time, particularly from the 1960s through the mid-1980s, the strategy made sense — summer returns tended to lag. But after the 1987 crash, the tide turned, and holding through summer became a more profitable long-term move.

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Indeed, numbers from LPL Financial show that while the S&P 500 has typically underperformed from May to October — averaging just 1.8% since 1950 — those months still delivered positive returns nearly two-thirds of the time. That’s hardly a strong argument for exiting the market altogether.

Even so, this year’s environment adds new wrinkles. “Tariffs and central bank policy are the real drivers right now,” says Adam Turnquist of LPL. “Seasonality might hint at what could happen, but it doesn’t reflect the day-to-day forces shaping market direction.”

After a volatile first quarter, U.S. indexes clawed back in April, but investors remain cautious. Some, like Tentarelli, see opportunity in the dips rather than signals to walk away. “We’re in a news-driven cycle,” he notes. “Pullbacks are entry points, not exit cues.”

Others, like Mark Malloch of Siebert Financial, are skeptical that seasonality alone is enough to make strategic moves. “Just because a trend existed in the past doesn’t make it reliable today,” he said.

Andrew Briggs of Plaza Advisory shares that sentiment. While acknowledging the strong April rebound, he warns against interpreting it as a green light to sell off. “There’s no compelling evidence suggesting we should walk away from the market just because the calendar says so,” he says.

In a year dominated by shifting policy winds and unpredictable developments, investors may want to rethink old sayings — or at least apply them with far more caution.

Alexander Stefanov