Wall Street Tensions Mount Over Fed Rate Cut Predictions

Wall Street is increasingly frustrated with the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy, highlighted by Bank of America's recent results.

The bank’s management anticipates the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in September, November, and December. However, their chief economist, Michael Gapen, expects just one 25-basis-point cut in December, though he now sees potential for an earlier cut after June’s lower inflation data.

Market expectations have shifted, with derivative contracts indicating two rate cuts starting in September and a 50% chance of a third cut by year-end. This reflects wider uncertainty, as economists advising clients often have different views from their management. Gapen’s outlook is one of the more conservative among major U.S. banks.

Previously, a single quarter-point cut by December was a common forecast, but Barclays, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations to match market sentiment more closely. Traders are now almost certain the Fed will cut rates by September. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 93.3% probability that the federal funds rate will drop to 5% to 5.25% in September, down from the current 5.25% to 5.50%.

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June’s consumer price index update, which showed a 0.1% month-over-month decrease, brought the annual inflation rate to 3%, the lowest in three years. A month ago, the likelihood of a September rate cut was about 70%. This significant change was driven by the favorable inflation data.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank will act by September. On Monday, Powell stated that the Fed wouldn’t wait for inflation to hit its 2% target before cutting rates, citing the lag effects of previous tightening measures. He emphasized that the Fed seeks greater confidence in inflation returning to 2%, noting recent favorable inflation data as a positive sign.

Alexander Stefanov