The latest inflation report from the Federal Reserve, based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, shows a 2.5% increase in prices year-over-year for January.
This closely watched measure tracks shifts in the cost of a typical set of goods and services, offering an important glimpse into economic trends.
In line with predictions, January’s PCE matched the 2.5% rise anticipated by economists, as per a survey by FactSet. While inflation has significantly decreased from the peak of nearly 9% observed in mid-2022, it continues to outpace the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. This data comes just after a CPI report, which indicated that inflation surged to 3% annually for the same period.
The persistent nature of inflation is having a clear effect on consumer behavior, prompting the Fed to take a cautious approach regarding further rate cuts. Economists suggest the continued inflation pressure was one of the key factors in the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady in January.
On the consumer front, there’s growing concern about the economic strain. Many Americans report their earnings are not keeping up with the rising cost of living.
JPMorgan Chase’s chief global strategist has expressed a cautious view of the U.S. economy, suggesting that while a full recession may be avoided, the near-term outlook points to slow and uneven growth.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited criticism of Federal Reserve policy, calling for swift interest rate reductions and casting doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s ability to handle the process.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has cautioned that the possibility of a U.S. recession still looms large, citing a convergence of geopolitical instability and unresolved domestic issues as key threats to economic momentum.
Global markets are recalibrating expectations for China’s economic performance following a sudden softening of trade tensions with the U.S.