This Model Suggests Bitcoin’s Fair Value Is $130K

Bitcoin (BTC) could be significantly undervalued, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.

In a recent post on social media, Edwards revealed that his proprietary Bitcoin Energy Value model places BTC’s intrinsic value at $130,000 — nearly 40% above its current market price of around $94,000.

The Bitcoin Energy Value model, created by Edwards, calculates BTC’s value based on the total energy consumption of its mining network. The theory behind the model: the joules used to secure Bitcoin’s blockchain represent a tangible input that can help define its base value.

By aligning Bitcoin’s market valuation with its energy cost, the model draws from physical economics and provides an alternative to traditional market-based indicators.

Bitcoin Energy Value is at $130K. We are one year post Halving and Bitcoin is trading at a whopping 40% discount to its intrinsic value. pic.twitter.com/kbqTgTPp5d

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 25, 2025

What the Undervaluation Could Mean

If the model proves accurate, Bitcoin may still have considerable upside. Edwards’ analysis suggests that BTC hasn’t yet caught up to its underlying fundamentals — potentially making it an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

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A 40% discount could signal an undervalued market, particularly as institutional demand rises and mining costs increase. While valuation models are far from foolproof, energy-based approaches offer a data-driven perspective that’s gaining traction.

As Bitcoin’s fundamentals continue to strengthen, many will be watching to see if the price follows suit — or if this undervaluation widens further.

Kostadin Dimitrov