The U.S. economy may be closer to a downturn than many realize, according to Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
While he’s not officially predicting a recession just yet, Bryson says current conditions are fragile enough that it wouldn’t take much to tip the balance.
Speaking in a recent CNBC interview, Bryson noted that the economy is “skating close” to contraction, with any additional shock—be it policy-driven or external—potentially pushing it into recession territory. His comments come as various indicators begin flashing signs of strain, particularly under the weight of newly imposed tariffs.
Looking ahead, Bryson expects 2025 to be marked by slower growth, largely due to trade disruptions and protectionist measures. However, he sees brighter prospects for 2026, pointing to expected monetary easing, moderate fiscal stimulus, and regulatory rollbacks as sources of recovery.
He also anticipates a significant policy shift from the Federal Reserve. As higher tariffs begin to dent employment and economic activity, Bryson believes the Fed could respond by cutting interest rates dramatically—potentially bringing them down to around 1% within a year from the current 4.25%–4.50% range.
If unemployment begins to rise as expected later this year, that may be the signal the central bank needs to shift gears and begin stimulating the economy more aggressively.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has issued a bold prediction on silver, calling it the “best asymmetric buy” currently available.
Fresh data on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — shows inflation ticked higher in May, potentially delaying the long-awaited Fed rate cut into September or later.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is once again under fire, this time facing renewed criticism from Donald Trump over the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady in June.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has sounded the alarm over America’s soaring national debt, warning of a looming economic crisis if no action is taken.