The U.S. economy may be closer to a downturn than many realize, according to Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
While he’s not officially predicting a recession just yet, Bryson says current conditions are fragile enough that it wouldn’t take much to tip the balance.
Speaking in a recent CNBC interview, Bryson noted that the economy is “skating close” to contraction, with any additional shock—be it policy-driven or external—potentially pushing it into recession territory. His comments come as various indicators begin flashing signs of strain, particularly under the weight of newly imposed tariffs.
Looking ahead, Bryson expects 2025 to be marked by slower growth, largely due to trade disruptions and protectionist measures. However, he sees brighter prospects for 2026, pointing to expected monetary easing, moderate fiscal stimulus, and regulatory rollbacks as sources of recovery.
He also anticipates a significant policy shift from the Federal Reserve. As higher tariffs begin to dent employment and economic activity, Bryson believes the Fed could respond by cutting interest rates dramatically—potentially bringing them down to around 1% within a year from the current 4.25%–4.50% range.
If unemployment begins to rise as expected later this year, that may be the signal the central bank needs to shift gears and begin stimulating the economy more aggressively.
U.S. inflation accelerated in June, dealing a potential setback to expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In a surprising long-term performance shift, gold has officially outpaced the U.S. stock market over the past 25 years—dividends included.
The United States has rolled out a broad set of new import tariffs this week, targeting over 30 countries and economic blocs in a sharp escalation of its trade protection measures, according to list from WatcherGuru.
After a week of record-setting gains in U.S. markets, investors are shifting focus to a quieter yet crucial stretch of macroeconomic developments.