Should We Expect a Rate Cut From the Fed Today?

Today is an important day for the american economy as the long-awaited Fed meeting will take place at around 19:00 (UTC).

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting but may signal a potential rate cut in September. Market indicators suggest a strong likelihood of a rate reduction during the Fed’s mid-September session, with speculation centered on whether the cut will be a modest quarter-point or a more substantial half-point.

The Fed has maintained its policy rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range for the past year. A half-point cut would likely require clear signs of a rapid economic slowdown that could endanger the current low unemployment rate of 4.1%.

Despite aggressive rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation, the economy has shown resilience. The second quarter saw a solid 2.8% annual growth rate, and job market data remains robust, with over 8 million job openings and a decline in layoffs. Employment metrics are stabilizing at pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a balanced job market.

The employment cost index increased by 0.9% in the second quarter, falling short of the 1% increase predicted by economists. This may imply that wage growth is unlikely to spur further inflation.

Analysts anticipate that Powell will stress the Fed’s data-dependent approach, with upcoming economic reports, including July’s employment figures, playing a crucial role in future decisions. Inflation continues to slow, with the PCE price index rising at a 2.5% annual rate in June and averaging around 1.5% recently, compared to the Fed’s 2% target. Tim Duy from SGH Macro Advisors suggests that the Fed may delay significant rate cuts, with current data supporting a gradual rather than immediate adjustment.