Ripple vs. SEC: Legal Experts Predict Settlement Could Be Near

Legal analyst Jeremy Hogan has suggested that the long-running battle between Ripple and the SEC may conclude within the first half of the year.

His projection follows the SEC’s recent decision to drop its lawsuit against Coinbase, a move that could influence the Ripple case’s outcome.

Hogan believes a resolution may arrive by April or May, though an earlier settlement remains possible given the regulatory shift. He pointed out that the SEC dismissed the Coinbase lawsuit with prejudice, preventing the case from being reopened. This was not a negotiated settlement but rather a unilateral decision by the agency, signaling a potential departure from its previous aggressive enforcement stance.

With SEC Chair nominee Paul Atkins not yet confirmed, the Commission appears to be moving forward with dropping non-fraud cases against crypto firms. Former SEC official John Reed Stark also speculated that Ripple’s case could be next, following the pattern set by Coinbase’s legal resolution.

Additionally, the SEC has agreed to a 60-day pause in its legal action against Binance, further suggesting a more conciliatory approach under the agency’s evolving leadership. This shift has fueled optimism among industry figures, including Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, who stated that regulators seem intent on leaving behind the enforcement-heavy policies of the past.

However, some experts argue that settling the Ripple case may not be as simple as the Coinbase lawsuit. Legal commentator Sherrie noted that Ripple’s case involves a prior court ruling, in which Judge Analisa Torres imposed a $125 million penalty. Any resolution would likely require revisiting this decision, potentially leading to a reduction in penalties.

Sherrie speculated that both parties may ultimately drop their appeals, returning to the district court to negotiate a revised financial penalty. If this occurs, it could pave the way for a final resolution and bring an end to one of the most closely watched legal battles in the crypto industry.