Despite solid employment data and improving trade sentiment, BCA Research’s Peter Berezin isn’t convinced the U.S. is in the clear.
In his latest market outlook, Berezin said the economy remains fragile—and avoiding a recession may depend more on political choices than economic fundamentals.
He argues that a less protectionist stance, particularly from Donald Trump if he returns to office, could help ease pressure on growth. Loosening tariffs, combined with continued complacency in bond markets over rising deficits, might delay or prevent a downturn—but Berezin doubts that scenario will play out cleanly.
The strategist’s warning came days after the U.S. reported stronger-than-expected May job growth, with 139,000 positions added and unemployment steady at 4.2%.
However, Berezin sees concerning similarities to past pre-recession periods, pointing to a softening in consumer confidence and persistent signs of financial strain across credit cards, auto loans, and commercial real estate.
He maintains that the economy remains vulnerable and that a single shock—economic or political—could set off a negative chain reaction.
Though recent progress in U.S.-China trade relations has slightly lowered recession odds, Berezin believes the danger hasn’t passed and that structural risks continue to mount beneath the surface.
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