Despite solid employment data and improving trade sentiment, BCA Research’s Peter Berezin isn’t convinced the U.S. is in the clear.
In his latest market outlook, Berezin said the economy remains fragile—and avoiding a recession may depend more on political choices than economic fundamentals.
He argues that a less protectionist stance, particularly from Donald Trump if he returns to office, could help ease pressure on growth. Loosening tariffs, combined with continued complacency in bond markets over rising deficits, might delay or prevent a downturn—but Berezin doubts that scenario will play out cleanly.
The strategist’s warning came days after the U.S. reported stronger-than-expected May job growth, with 139,000 positions added and unemployment steady at 4.2%.
However, Berezin sees concerning similarities to past pre-recession periods, pointing to a softening in consumer confidence and persistent signs of financial strain across credit cards, auto loans, and commercial real estate.
He maintains that the economy remains vulnerable and that a single shock—economic or political—could set off a negative chain reaction.
Though recent progress in U.S.-China trade relations has slightly lowered recession odds, Berezin believes the danger hasn’t passed and that structural risks continue to mount beneath the surface.
U.S. inflation accelerated in June, dealing a potential setback to expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In a surprising long-term performance shift, gold has officially outpaced the U.S. stock market over the past 25 years—dividends included.
The United States has rolled out a broad set of new import tariffs this week, targeting over 30 countries and economic blocs in a sharp escalation of its trade protection measures, according to list from WatcherGuru.
After a week of record-setting gains in U.S. markets, investors are shifting focus to a quieter yet crucial stretch of macroeconomic developments.