In 2024, fears of a looming recession have been a key issue for investors, but those worries are now waning.
As of October, only 8% of investors expect a severe economic downturn within the next year, according to a Bank of America survey, marking the lowest level of pessimism in two years. Most investors, 76%, predict a mild economic slowdown, while 14% anticipate no recession at all.
Investors are not expecting a recession anymore:
Just 8% of global investors think we’re headed for a hard landing within the next 12 months, according to the latest $BAC survey—near its lowest level in 2 years.
That means a staggering 76% believe the global economy will manage… pic.twitter.com/OoiI01G1ZD
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) October 16, 2024
Prediction markets support this shift, with PolyMarket data indicating that the odds of a U.S. recession this year have dropped significantly—from 30% in August to just 6% by mid-October. The change in outlook comes as stock markets and commodities like gold hit historic highs, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut—its first in four years—and expectations of further cuts.
Still, not everyone is convinced. Some analysts warn that rising gold prices, diverging from typical bond market trends, could signal hidden recession risks. For example, The Kobeissi Letter suggests that gold’s behavior points to potential economic trouble. Meanwhile, investor Robert Kiyosaki has cautioned that the gold rally might indicate an approaching market crash.
Despite the upbeat market, signs of caution persist. A report from Investing DeCrypted notes that the U.S. unemployment rate is climbing—a reliable recession indicator in the past. If this trend continues, it could foreshadow an economic downturn within the next three to six months.
The first week of July brings several important developments in the United States that could influence both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency sector.
Ric Edelman, one of the most influential voices in personal finance, has radically revised his stance on crypto allocation. After years of cautious optimism, he now believes that digital assets deserve a far larger share in investment portfolios than ever before.
In the case involving Terraform Labs and its co-founder Do Hyeong Kwon, the defense has asked the Federal Court for the Southern District of New York to extend the deadline for pretrial filings by two weeks, pushing it beyond the original date of July 1, 2025.
Coinbase has emerged as the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 for June, climbing 43% amid a surge of bullish momentum driven by regulatory clarity, product innovation, and deeper institutional interest in crypto.