Rate Cuts Expected as Fed Balances Inflation and Employment

Federal Reserve officials are approaching a decision to lower borrowing costs within the next few months. Chair Jerome Powell might hint at this move soon, as concerns grow about impacting a strong yet slowing job market.

The US central bankers, who have kept interest rates at a two-decade high for the past year, are anticipated to maintain the current rates during their two-day meeting ending on Wednesday. However, investors predict a rate cut in September.

Recent economic data has been encouraging, with slower price increases and strong growth. Nonetheless, the Fed seeks further assurance that inflation will continue to decline towards their 2% target.

With decreasing inflation pressures and a slight rise in unemployment, the Fed’s goals of maximum employment and stable prices are becoming more balanced. The officials aim to control inflation without harming the labor market by keeping rates high for too long.

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This makes the upcoming monthly jobs report on Friday, along with other labor market indicators, particularly significant.

The July employment report is expected to show continued moderation in hiring, with nonfarm payrolls projected to increase by 178,000. The unemployment rate, which has risen over the past three months, is expected to remain at 4.1%.

Hurricane Beryl, which hit Texas earlier this month, could affect hours worked, adding an element of unpredictability. Additionally, new data on job openings and quitting, set for release on Tuesday, will be closely monitored.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, also due on Tuesday, will provide insights into consumer sentiment. Investors will also review the Institute for Supply Management’s factory report on Thursday for an update on the manufacturing sector.

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Bloomberg Economics notes that most Fed officials are likely to agree that the risks to the central bank’s full employment mandate are balanced with the risks to inflation. There is expected to be a consensus that a rate cut will be appropriate soon, though the exact timing might vary.

Source

Alexander Stefanov