Quantum computing is no longer just a theoretical threat to Bitcoin — it’s fast becoming a real one.
IBM aims to launch the world’s first fault-tolerant quantum computer, dubbed Quantum Starling, by 2029. While this timeline might seem distant, experts say the countdown to a cryptographic reckoning has already begun.
Google researcher Craig Gidney recently revealed that quantum machines might be far closer to breaking encryption than previously believed. His study showed that current estimates for cracking RSA keys — a cousin to the elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin — were overly optimistic. Based on his math, ECC might be compromised within a decade, possibly as early as 2030.
Meanwhile, not everyone agrees on how close the danger really is. Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes we’re at least 20 years away from quantum machines powerful enough to threaten Bitcoin. Yet he admits the crypto world may need to eventually migrate funds to quantum-safe addresses, including dormant holdings like Satoshi Nakamoto’s.
Others urge quicker action. David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, warns that some emerging technologies — like Microsoft’s quantum hardware — may accelerate the timeline to just five years. He claims nearly a third of all BTC sits in vulnerable wallets, and one breach could shatter public trust.
Investor Chamath Palihapitiya echoed those fears late last year, arguing that with enough quantum chips, Bitcoin’s core hashing algorithm could be broken even sooner. He believes developers must begin upgrading now before the threat becomes irreversible.
While quantum computers still face massive engineering hurdles, the race is on to ensure Bitcoin’s defenses are ready before it’s too late.
Bitcoin could be on the verge of another major breakout as institutional inflows return to levels that historically trigger rapid price acceleration.
According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin is entering a new stage of on-chain behavior marked by two key developments: a rare third peak in the SOPR Trend Signal during a single bull cycle and a sustained outflow dominance in exchange flows.
According to the latest Santiment report, the crypto market is entering a critical phase, with a mix of bullish on-chain signals and cautionary sentiment indicators.
In a stunning on-chain event that has reignited curiosity across the crypto community, more than $8.6 billion worth of Bitcoin linked to the network’s earliest years—commonly referred to as the “Satoshi era”—was quietly moved on Friday in what analysts believe is the largest single transfer of early-mined BTC ever recorded.