As tensions erupt in the Middle East following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran has turned to Moscow for support.
But the Kremlin, grappling with a drained arsenal, economic pressure, and diplomatic caution, is in no shape to respond. For President Vladimir Putin, the timing couldn’t be worse.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Moscow hoping to cash in on wartime cooperation, having supplied Russia with drones and weapons throughout the Ukraine conflict. But the visit yielded little. Moscow offered no military assistance, no promises, and barely a reaction—just a vague call for both sides to de-escalate.
Analysts say Putin simply doesn’t have the resources. Years of war in Ukraine have gutted Russia’s weapons stockpile and left its economy teetering. Any serious show of support for Iran could jeopardize the fragile rapport with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has shown admiration for Putin in the past. Picking sides now could trigger fresh U.S. sanctions or worse.
At the same time, a destabilized Iran threatens Russia’s growing investments in the region. In 2024, Russia poured nearly $3 billion into Iranian infrastructure and energy projects, with another $8 billion planned for 2025. Those plans now hang by a thread as Tehran faces mounting pressure and international isolation.
Yet, there’s also a cynical strategic calculation at play. A drawn-out conflict in the Middle East could shift Western attention away from Ukraine and push oil prices higher—potentially padding Russia’s war budget. But that upside comes with enormous risk. If Iran unravels, Moscow loses a rare regional ally, along with its economic foothold.
Domestically, the Kremlin is juggling illusions of economic strength. Official figures claim Russia grew faster than the U.S. and U.K. last year, but the engine behind that growth is overwhelmingly defense spending. Inflation is still high, interest rates sit at 20%, and the job market is under strain. Even Russia’s own economy minister recently warned the country could tip into recession.
In short, while Iran reaches out, Putin can only watch. With little ammunition—military or economic—he’s boxed in, and any move risks collapsing the fragile balance he’s trying to maintain.
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