Macroeconomic Data Could Thwart Bitcoin’s Surge, Analyst Warns

Renowned crypto expert Benjamin Cowen has issued a cautionary note regarding Bitcoin's potential breakout above the $70,000 mark, suggesting that a key macroeconomic indicator could influence its trajectory.

According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s response around this psychological level will be crucial in determining whether it adheres to historical patterns or follows the recent monetary policy outlook. He highlighted that while Bitcoin typically sees gains during the fourth quarter of a halving year, macroeconomic factors could delay any significant rally.

Cowen stated, there are two prevailing views on Bitcoin’s future: the cyclical perspective, which predicts a rise in Q4 2024, and the monetary policy perspective, suggesting a downturn followed by recovery in early 2025.

He explained that if Bitcoin surpasses $70,000 in a sustained manner, it will likely support the cyclical outlook. Conversely, a failure to hold this level could push Bitcoin back toward $64,000, reinforcing the monetary policy view and delaying any breakout until next year.

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The upcoming US labor market report, scheduled for release on November 1st, is anticipated to play a significant role in Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Cowen noted that the market is closely monitoring unemployment trends, as a rise in the unemployment rate could create bearish conditions for Bitcoin.

Cowen warned that disappointing labor market data might lead to another sharp decline for Bitcoin, reminiscent of earlier this year when the cryptocurrency experienced significant pullbacks in April and August.

Alexander Stefanov