Bitcoin’s next big move will depend more on money creation than on missiles or media noise, according to macro strategist Raoul Pal.
In a recent post, the former hedge-fund manager plotted Bitcoin’s price against the world’s broad money supply (global M2) and found that nearly nine-tenths of the coin’s gyrations over the past three years shadowed shifts in liquidity.
That backdrop offers a simple read on today’s Middle-East flare-up. Reports of Israeli strikes on an Iranian gas hub briefly sent oil futures up more than 7 percent and revived talk of shipping disruptions, yet Bitcoin barely twitched—adding a fraction of a percent while stock futures wobbled.
Pal’s takeaway: unless the conflict forces central banks to flood or drain the system, digital-asset traders can expect business as usual.
The liquidity lens also explains why Bitcoin has weathered COVID shocks, rate-hike cycles, and election headlines with the same pattern: knee-jerk volatility followed by a grind that mirrors the size of the global money pie.
For investors, that framework is blunt but useful: track aggregate M2. If it expands, the odds still favor higher BTC prints, even if oil prices, war risk, or tweet-storms make the path noisy in the short run.
Bitcoin is once again mirroring global liquidity trends—and that could have major implications in the days ahead.
The crypto market is showing signs of cautious optimism. While prices remain elevated, sentiment indicators and trading activity suggest investors are stepping back to reassess risks rather than diving in further.
Citigroup analysts say the key to Bitcoin’s future isn’t mining cycles or halving math—it’s ETF inflows.
Bitcoin may be entering a typical summer correction phase, according to a July 25 report by crypto financial services firm Matrixport.