One of the most important data points that will shape future Federal Reserve interest rate policy was just released - the CPI.
Overall inflation in June fell to 3% year over year, lower than the expectations (expectations were for 3.1%) – a slowdown from the 3.3% annual pace set in May, with no MoM changes.
The core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen at 3.3% year over year, while the monthly core CPI fell by 0.1%.
The applications for unemployment benefits were announced at 222,000 – down from the previous 238,000.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell presented the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and testified before US Congress and the House Committee on Financial Services. Powell emphasized that they are not considering a policy rate cut until they are confident inflation is heading sustainably towards 2%.
Regarding the job market, Powell acknowledged that recent data indicate a significant cooling in employment conditions.
Despite Powell’s remarks, there was little impact on market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining the policy rate in September remains around 26%, virtually unchanged from before Powell’s statements.
June’s CPI data reveals a good probability for September rate cuts, which could potentially boost market confidence.
European financial authorities are currently divided over how much of a threat Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly stance poses to the Eurozone.
Since 2022, China has been actively promoting the yuan as a go-to currency for trade among BRICS nations, capitalizing on geopolitical rifts—particularly after Western sanctions hit Russia.
Market anxiety is surging after President Trump’s latest move to impose sweeping tariffs, with crypto-based prediction platforms now signaling a growing belief that a U.S. recession is on the horizon.
As trade tensions rise and economic signals grow harder to read, America’s largest banks are posting quarterly results that reflect both resilience and caution.