JPMorgan Warns of Oil Slump to $58 as Global Alliances Unravel

JPMorgan has dramatically lowered its oil price forecast for 2026, now expecting crude to fall to $58 per barrel.

The revision signals growing concern over the breakdown of global cooperation among producers and shifting geopolitical dynamics that are reshaping the energy landscape.

One major contributor to the expected decline is Brazil’s refusal to commit to formal production cuts under OPEC+. While it remains loosely affiliated with the group, Brazil’s booming oil output and decision to chart its own course threaten to undercut efforts to manage global supply.

Within OPEC itself, unity is fraying. Saudi Arabia is facing resistance from member states prioritizing their own revenue needs over collective agreements. This internal friction could trigger another bout of instability in oil markets as early as next year.

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JPMorgan’s lead commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva also points to changes in U.S. economic policy, which may offer only limited price support. Unlike other markets, oil lacks political favor in Washington, where efforts remain focused on containing inflation through lower energy prices.

Meanwhile, the BRICS bloc’s ongoing push to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in oil trading adds another layer of uncertainty. These de-dollarization moves may further disrupt traditional pricing structures and introduce new volatility.

All signs point to a market entering a more unpredictable phase. With fractured alliances and diverging national interests, JPMorgan’s updated outlook suggests the days of coordinated price control could be behind us.

Alexander Stefanov

With over 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a seasoned content creator and market analyst dedicated to making digital assets more accessible and understandable. He specializes in breaking down complex crypto trends, analyzing market movements, and producing insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and seasoned investors. Alexander has built a reputation for delivering timely and accurate analysis, while keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies, and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm belief that widespread education is key to accelerating global crypto adoption.