Here’s How Much Altcoins Could Drop Before a Potential Recovery

Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that altcoins are set for a major downturn in the third quarter of 2025.

He explained that historical trends suggest another significant decline for altcoins, as their price movements are heavily influenced by Bitcoin (BTC). Based on previous cycles, he believes altcoins will likely experience a sharp drop during the summer before attempting a recovery around November.

Cowen illustrated his point using a chart that tracks TOTAL3, an index representing the total market value of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins. According to him, TOTAL3/BTC is currently at 0.47 but could drop below 0.27, a level that has historically preceded a collapse in the altcoin market. He stressed that Bitcoin’s trajectory remains the key factor in determining whether altcoins will follow a similar path or diverge from past patterns.

He also highlighted the potential influence of 10-year Treasury yields, which often reflect investor risk sentiment. If Bitcoin breaks to a new cycle high, altcoins may benefit and rise alongside it. However, if BTC declines, it could coincide with a surge in long-term yields, which might trigger further downside for altcoins. Cowen pointed out that previous corrections in Bitcoin were often accompanied by a spike in 10-year yields, suggesting that macroeconomic factors could play a crucial role in shaping market movements.

Ultimately, Cowen believes that investor sentiment will determine how deep the altcoin downturn goes. If confidence in risk assets weakens, altcoins could remain suppressed for an extended period. However, he noted that historical trends suggest a potential late-year rebound, fueled by renewed speculative interest and shifts in broader economic conditions. He urged traders to keep a close watch on Bitcoin’s price action, as any major movement in BTC is likely to dictate the overall direction of the crypto market in the months ahead.