Hedera (HBAR) Faces Sharp Pullback After 49% Monthly Rally

Hedera’s native token HBAR is facing selling pressure after an explosive 49% monthly surge, dropping over 5% in the past 24 hours at time of writing.

Despite holding above $0.22, technical signals and derivatives market dynamics suggest the altcoin could face more volatility in the short term.

Overbought signals trigger sharp correction

HBAR’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit extreme levels—87.9 on the 7-day and 79.8 on the 14-day—indicating overbought conditions. Historically, such levels have often preceded price corrections. The token was also trading 30% above its 50-day moving average, making it vulnerable to mean reversion.

Support near $0.225, based on Fibonacci retracement (23.6% level), failed to hold during Tuesday’s pullback. The next key support is around $0.206, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

Market-wide headwinds add pressure

HBAR’s underperformance came amid a 1.8% drop in the overall crypto market cap and a rise in Bitcoin dominance to 63.12%. This signals capital rotation toward BTC and away from riskier altcoins. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 70, a traditionally contrarian signal warning of potential downside.

Still, prominent analyst Ali Martinez sees bullish potential if HBAR breaks above the $0.36 resistance. For now, traders are watching whether institutional adoption narratives can offset technical headwinds—especially if Bitcoin stabilizes above $117,000.

Key levels to watch: $0.206 support, $0.265 resistance, and Bitcoin’s $117.4K macro pivot.

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Futures market shows signs of overheating

Open interest in HBAR futures climbed to a record $450 million, according to Coingape, intensifying volatility. Within 24 hours, long positions worth $7.1 million were liquidated as the token failed to break resistance in the $0.233–$0.263 zone.

Trading volume also dropped 43% to $834 million, indicating fading momentum. The spot-to-perpetual ratio sits at 0.46, implying price movements are being driven largely by speculative derivatives rather than organic demand.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.