The escalating trade war between China and the US has sparked global economic disruption.
It began in February 2023 when the US imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, quickly escalating to 20% by March. The goal was to punish China for unfair trade practices, but Beijing retaliated with its own tariffs, particularly targeting US exports like soybeans and wheat.
The US didn’t stop there, expanding the trade battle to the EU, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, claiming these measures were necessary to ensure fair trade and address national security concerns, particularly regarding steel imports. In response, China restricted rare earth mineral exports, crucial for US technology and defense industries.
As both nations imposed more tariffs and non-tariff barriers, global trade slowed, and stock markets plunged. US businesses saw rising costs, while Chinese manufacturers scrambled for new markets. Amid this turmoil, cryptocurrency gained a slight boost, partly due to Trump’s proposal for a national crypto reserve.
The global economic fallout is significant, with experts predicting a 1.5% dip in global GDP by 2025. While neither side is backing down, the war continues to disrupt supply chains, jobs, and economies worldwide, leaving the outcome uncertain.
JPMorgan Chase’s chief global strategist has expressed a cautious view of the U.S. economy, suggesting that while a full recession may be avoided, the near-term outlook points to slow and uneven growth.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited criticism of Federal Reserve policy, calling for swift interest rate reductions and casting doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s ability to handle the process.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has cautioned that the possibility of a U.S. recession still looms large, citing a convergence of geopolitical instability and unresolved domestic issues as key threats to economic momentum.
Global markets are recalibrating expectations for China’s economic performance following a sudden softening of trade tensions with the U.S.