Crypto Betting Booms Ahead of U.S. Presidential Election

Ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, Polymarket has seen a major spike in activity, with its prediction market volume climbing to an impressive $3.2 billion.

This surge underscores the intense interest in the election, with many bettors showing confidence in Donald Trump’s potential victory over Kamala Harris.

Polymarket’s data currently assigns Trump a 58.3% chance of winning, compared to Harris at 41.8%. Wagers on Trump now total $1.279 billion, surpassing Harris’s $804.7 million, with a single high-stakes bet of $15 million placed in Trump’s favor. Polymarket has outlined that payouts will be determined based on a consensus among three major outlets—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC News. If they don’t align, the final outcome will hinge on the official inauguration.

Interest in election predictions on Polymarket has soared. Between September and October, trading volumes rose 368%, reaching a high of $2.5 billion. This rapid growth speaks to the enthusiasm around forecasting the election, as well as the larger trend of using prediction markets to gauge political outcomes. Bloomberg’s integration of Polymarket data into its terminal in August further signaled a shift, and Robinhood’s new event contracts rolled out in October highlight the rising appeal of this alternative asset.

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Despite its success, Polymarket is facing some scrutiny. Questions have surfaced over potential market manipulation in Trump’s favor, with instances of “wash trading” possibly inflating his odds. In response, Polymarket has enhanced its monitoring of user accounts, especially those linked to unusual trading behavior.

As Election Day nears, the dynamics on Polymarket will be closely watched. Whether this intense betting activity accurately reflects the political landscape or simply a speculative surge remains to be seen, but Polymarket’s ascent illustrates the expanding influence of prediction markets in political forecasting.

Kosta Gushterov