China’s Economic Stimulus Plans Dismissed Amid Trade Uncertainty, Says Analyst

Shehzad Qazi, the Chief Operating Officer of China Beige Book, recently dismissed the idea of a major economic stimulus from China, countering speculations about Beijing's fiscal strategy.

In an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Qazi elaborated on China’s current economic outlook, pointing out that while certain indicators like factory revenues and profits have shown improvement, these gains largely stem from preemptive export orders made in anticipation of U.S. tariffs.

Qazi explained that the surge in orders, driven by fears of tariffs, was more of a strategic move than a sign of lasting economic expansion.

He further clarified that the much-discussed idea of a significant stimulus package from China was unlikely, emphasizing that the Chinese government seemed focused on preserving its financial resources for future stability rather than implementing large-scale measures in the short term.

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Qazi also commented on the complicated dynamics between the U.S. and China, particularly in light of former President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. According to Qazi, these tariff threats have contributed to economic volatility but also led Chinese factories to bolster production in anticipation of trade disruptions.

Additionally, he touched on the ongoing debate over China’s preferred leadership in the U.S., suggesting that Chinese authorities may find President Biden’s administration more predictable compared to Trump’s riskier, more unpredictable tactics.

Kosta Gushterov