Bitcoin has long followed a predictable four-year cycle, but this pattern may no longer hold, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.
While 2025 is still expected to be a bullish year, Hougan warns that 2026 could take a different path, diverging from past trends due to shifting macroeconomic conditions.
In a recent letter to investors, Hougan challenged the idea that Bitcoin’s price movements are primarily driven by halving events. He pointed to regulatory shifts and broader economic forces as the key catalysts shaping the market. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced strong rallies followed by sharp corrections—such as the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 and the SEC’s crackdown on ICOs in 2018. However, Hougan argues that recent events signal a fundamental shift.
One major turning point, he noted, was Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC in 2023, which ultimately paved the way for Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. This institutional gateway helped push Bitcoin from $22,218 in early 2023 to over $102,000. Additionally, U.S. policy decisions, including executive actions from Donald Trump, have played a growing role in shaping the market.
Looking ahead, Hougan believes Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 by 2025, fueled by continued ETF inflows and institutional demand. However, he cautioned that rising leverage in the market—through debt-funded BTC purchases and lending programs—could heighten volatility and lead to unpredictable shifts in 2026.
Rumble has expanded its Bitcoin holdings, acquiring 188 BTC for $17.1 million as part of its long-term strategy to integrate digital assets into its corporate treasury.
Russia, under mounting financial sanctions, is cautiously testing the waters of regulated cryptocurrency investment.
Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has bolstered its Bitcoin holdings with a fresh purchase of 162 BTC, pushing its total stash to 3,050 BTC.
Despite Bitcoin’s price struggles, large investors have continued to accumulate, adding over 65,000 BTC in the past month.