Bitcoin’s Future May Break Away from Traditional Cycles, Says Bitwise CIO

Bitcoin has long followed a predictable four-year cycle, but this pattern may no longer hold, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.

While 2025 is still expected to be a bullish year, Hougan warns that 2026 could take a different path, diverging from past trends due to shifting macroeconomic conditions.

In a recent letter to investors, Hougan challenged the idea that Bitcoin’s price movements are primarily driven by halving events. He pointed to regulatory shifts and broader economic forces as the key catalysts shaping the market. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced strong rallies followed by sharp corrections—such as the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 and the SEC’s crackdown on ICOs in 2018. However, Hougan argues that recent events signal a fundamental shift.

One major turning point, he noted, was Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC in 2023, which ultimately paved the way for Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. This institutional gateway helped push Bitcoin from $22,218 in early 2023 to over $102,000. Additionally, U.S. policy decisions, including executive actions from Donald Trump, have played a growing role in shaping the market.

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Looking ahead, Hougan believes Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 by 2025, fueled by continued ETF inflows and institutional demand. However, he cautioned that rising leverage in the market—through debt-funded BTC purchases and lending programs—could heighten volatility and lead to unpredictable shifts in 2026.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.