Bitcoin’s Future Depends on Liquidity, Not the Halving, Says Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes anticipates Bitcoin reaching an eye-catching price point before the market cycle peaks, suggesting a significant rally fueled by monetary expansion.

In a conversation with Kyle Chasse, he speculated that Bitcoin could hit figures like $666,000, $500,000, or even $1 million—numbers that hold psychological significance. However, he warned that once fiat money creation reaches extreme levels, it might be time to exit the market.

Hayes also argued that Bitcoin’s price movements are no longer primarily dictated by its traditional four-year halving cycles. While the halving once played a crucial role in supply and demand dynamics, he believes Bitcoin has now evolved into a full-fledged asset class, widely discussed by financial institutions and central banks.

According to him, Bitcoin has overtaken gold as the most responsive indicator of fiat liquidity, serving as a 24/7 market signal for global monetary conditions.

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He emphasized that Bitcoin’s role in financial markets has shifted as governments and central banks increasingly intervene in economies through aggressive monetary policies.

With inflation concerns and rising liquidity, Bitcoin’s price action now reflects broader economic forces rather than just internal supply factors. Hayes suggested that this transformation makes Bitcoin more sensitive to macroeconomic trends, particularly shifts in interest rates and liquidity injections.

Additionally, he pointed out that the global financial landscape is evolving, with institutions and nations reassessing their stance on digital assets. As traditional markets grapple with volatility, Bitcoin could continue to emerge as a hedge against economic uncertainty, reinforcing its status as a key asset in the modern financial system.

Alexander Zdravkov