Bitcoin Stalls Below $120K as Markets Signal Late-Cycle Fatigue, Says QCP Capital

Bitcoin is treading water near the $120,000 resistance, with persistent bids around $116,000 offering a firm base—but failing to ignite fresh upside momentum.

According to QCP Capital’s Asia Colour note dated July 30, 2025, the lack of reaction to bullish headlines and strong institutional flows may reflect a maturing rally and potential late-cycle market behavior.

Ethereum’s recent surge has also cooled, with $4,000 acting as a psychological barrier. Momentum indicators across both BTC and ETH have turned neutral, suggesting a market pause rather than a breakout. While structural fundamentals remain strong—backed by institutional accumulators like Strategy (MSTR) and SharpLink Gaming (SBET)—the inability of price to respond to ongoing positive news may signal growing exhaustion.

Market Absorbs Bullish News With Caution

Despite a slew of favorable developments—including crypto-friendly regulation in the U.S., and traction in both spot and derivatives ETF markets—Bitcoin’s muted response has raised eyebrows. QCP warns that such behavior typically reflects a stall in upward momentum, even as medium-term potential remains intact.

READ MORE:

Standard Chartered: Ethereum Treasury Firms Now Form a Distinct Investment Class

This kind of price action, where good news fails to drive strong follow-through, has historically preceded corrections. As a result, traders may need to reassess positioning, especially with macro volatility looming.

Macro Risks Build: USD Short Squeeze in Focus

The global macro landscape presents additional headwinds. The consensus trade of 2025—a weaker U.S. Dollar driven by the Tariff War and rate expectations—may be reaching exhaustion. With the USD already down 10% YTD, QCP questions how much further it can decline.

Notably, CFTC data reveals extreme short positioning in USDJPY, which QCP sees as ripe for a short squeeze. If the Dollar rebounds sharply, it could trigger risk-off flows across crypto, equities, and emerging markets.

While the U.S.–EU tariff standoff appears to be cooling, geopolitical risk remains elevated. President Trump’s calls to end the Russia–Ukraine war have been largely dismissed by policymakers, reinforcing uncertainty heading into Q3.

READ MORE:

U.S. Dollar Comes Onchain as GENIUS Act Ushers in Digital Era

All Eyes on Fed as Q3 Data Looms

The July FOMC is widely expected to hold rates steady, but the September decision hangs in the balance, hinging on inflation and employment data. With tariffs pressuring both corporate margins and consumer prices, the Fed’s data-dependent path could shape the crypto market’s trajectory for the rest of the year.

For now, QCP urges caution. While new highs remain on the table, current market dynamics suggest a critical inflection point is near—especially if macro shocks interrupt the steady flow of institutional accumulation.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.