Bitcoin Outpaces Stocks, But Recession Threat Looms Ahead, According to strategist Mike McGlone

According to Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin (BTC) has outshined the S&P 500 so far in 2025.

As of April 23, BTC had returned to breakeven for the year, while the S&P 500 lagged with a nearly 10% loss. McGlone called this performance “an accomplishment,” especially given the broader downturn in traditional equity markets.

Recession Could Derail Crypto Momentum

McGlone warned that Bitcoin’s lead may not hold if the U.S. economy dips into recession. Citing Bloomberg Economics projections, he outlined a potential 30% stock market decline under such conditions. Drawing parallels to major market collapses—1929 in the U.S., 1989 in Japan, and the 2000 dot-com crash—he argued that crypto markets could face similar deflationary risks due to excessive speculation and token oversupply.

Bitcoin and Gold Rise Together—but For How Long?

Over the past year, both Bitcoin and gold have climbed roughly 42%, far outpacing equities. McGlone sees Bitcoin as a strong contender in the ongoing “safe haven” narrative.

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While gold remains a traditional hedge, he noted that BTC’s appeal could rise if economic instability and debates over Fed independence intensify.

McGlone concluded that Bitcoin remains a high-risk, high-reward asset—but in uncertain times, it may continue to attract investors looking for alternatives to fiat-based systems.

Kostadin Dimitrov