Bitcoin Dominance Nears Key Resistance — Is Altseason Coming Next?

A major shift in the crypto cycle may be approaching as Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) once again reaches critical long-term resistance.

According to analysis shared by Bitcoinsensus, the BTC.D index — which measures Bitcoin’s market share relative to the total crypto market — is testing the upper boundary of a multi-year rising wedge pattern.

Historical pattern suggests a reversal

The chart highlights a recurring pattern dating back to 2017. Each time BTC.D touched the upper resistance of this wedge, it triggered a sharp reversal — often followed by the start of an altseason. This cycle repeated in 2018, 2021, and 2023, and now appears to be setting up for another move lower in the second half of 2025.

If history rhymes, a breakdown from this wedge could set the stage for a broad altcoin rally — especially as Bitcoin’s dominance has surged to 63.94%, near previous local tops.

Why this resistance level matters

The rising wedge pattern indicates that BTC.D is making higher lows but facing rejection at a consistent diagonal resistance. These trendlines act like pressure zones. When dominance fails to break above resistance, capital often flows into altcoins, sparking increased volatility and rapid price appreciation across the sector.

A confirmed reversal could mark the beginning of the next altcoin supercycle, with assets like Ethereum, Solana, and other Layer 1s benefiting the most.

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Key levels and timing

• BTC.D Resistance zone: ~64%–65%
• Wedge support zone: ~40%–45%
• Historical altseason pivots: Post-rejection phases from 2018, 2021, 2023

Bitcoinsensus notes that this setup “makes sense” for a full-blown altseason in the next few months, especially if dominance begins to roll over.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.