Bitcoin Could Surge 200% if Dollar Index Drops, Analyst Predicts

Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts forecasts that Bitcoin could see a 200% increase in its current cycle, potentially reaching a six-figure price.

Coutts projects a 2X to 3X rise in Bitcoin’s value, which is more modest compared to the 19X and 6X gains seen in 2017 and 2020, respectively. To achieve this target, Coutts believes that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) needs to fall significantly below 101, a change likely driven by ongoing central bank interventions.

The central banks are capitulating, the liquidity spigots are opening, and #Bitcoin is about to go much higher.

My composite global liquidity momentum model (MSI), has provided the first Bullish regime signal since November 2023. Recall that Bitcoin rallied 75% from Nov to… pic.twitter.com/ovF6qSHX8c

— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) August 15, 2024

Currently, the DXY is at 102.65, measuring the dollar’s strength against other major currencies.

Coutts’ global liquidity model, which had previously anticipated a 75% increase in Bitcoin’s value by November 2023, now suggests further upward movement. This is attributed to substantial liquidity injections from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which together accounted for 41% of the global liquidity boost last month.

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Coutts highlighted that the BoJ and PBoC added $400 billion and $97 billion respectively in the past month, contributing to a $1.2 trillion increase in the global money base. This expansion, coupled with a notable drop in the U.S. dollar, indicates a possible coordination with the Federal Reserve.

The forecasted Bitcoin surge is significant given the cryptocurrency’s inherent volatility. It hinges on the assumption that the U.S. Dollar Index will decline, which depends on sustained central bank activity. The influence of major banks like the BoJ and PBoC, along with the Federal Reserve’s role in managing global liquidity, is seen as a key factor in this potential bullish trend for Bitcoin.

Alexander Stefanov