Lyn Alden, a well-known expert in macroeconomics, recently compared the ongoing Bitcoin correction to a similar dip seen in March 2024, highlighting a key on-chain metric that could provide clues about Bitcoin's future price movement.
During her interview on The Your Life! Your Terms! YouTube channel, Alden explained the significance of the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio. This metric compares Bitcoin’s market cap with the average price at which coins were last transacted. According to Alden, the MVRV ratio is a useful tool for identifying whether Bitcoin is currently overvalued or undervalued.
She noted that in the early phases of a bull market, Bitcoin’s market capitalization can surge rapidly while the average cost basis lags behind. This discrepancy leads to an inflated MVRV ratio, as early holders of Bitcoin continue to hold onto their coins in anticipation of higher prices. As the ratio increases, it can signal that long-term holders are ready to sell, potentially marking the start of a longer-term market downturn.
However, Alden believes that Bitcoin is still operating within a typical bull market range. She explained that the recent fluctuations in the MVRV ratio, particularly during Bitcoin’s rally to $73,000 and later to $108,000, were notable but not extreme enough to suggest the end of the bull run. Instead, she sees these movements as part of the typical market cycle and remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future performance.
While the MVRV metric may indicate some overvaluation at times, Alden believes the market is not yet signaling a multi-year top. She emphasized that she is closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price action and believes that the likelihood of further upward movement remains higher than the chances of a major pullback. Her view is that Bitcoin still has the potential to reach new highs before any significant bearish trend takes hold
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