Billionaire Peter Thiel has expressed concern that the US economy would likely be in a recession if not for extensive government intervention.
During a discussion with Chamath Palihapitiya at the All-In Summit 2024, Thiel suggested that while a downturn is imminent, it has been temporarily avoided due to significant government spending.
Thiel criticized the current level of government stimulus as unsustainable, pointing to enormous budget deficits. He noted that the projected deficit for fiscal year 2024 had significantly increased from an initial estimate of $1.5 to $1.6 trillion, now expected to be around $400 billion higher.
Thiel remarked that such high deficits at the peak of the economic cycle, rather than during a recession, indicate a troubling economic situation.
Recent figures from the Congressional Budget Office reveal a $1.9 trillion budget deficit for the first 11 months of the 2024 fiscal year, a $373 billion increase from the previous year.
Additionally, the Treasury Department reports that the national debt has reached a record $35.273 trillion.
The U.S. economy may be closer to a downturn than many realize, according to Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
Morgan Stanley has issued a cautionary outlook on the U.S. dollar, predicting a major decline over the coming year as Federal Reserve rate cuts take hold.
Legendary investor Ray Dalio has issued a stark warning about the trajectory of U.S. government finances, suggesting the country is drifting toward a series of severe economic shocks unless its debt spiral is urgently addressed.
Steve Eisman, the famed investor known for forecasting the 2008 housing collapse, is sounding the alarm—not on overvalued tech stocks or interest rates, but on the escalating risk of global trade disputes.