Billionaire Peter Thiel has expressed concern that the US economy would likely be in a recession if not for extensive government intervention.
During a discussion with Chamath Palihapitiya at the All-In Summit 2024, Thiel suggested that while a downturn is imminent, it has been temporarily avoided due to significant government spending.
Thiel criticized the current level of government stimulus as unsustainable, pointing to enormous budget deficits. He noted that the projected deficit for fiscal year 2024 had significantly increased from an initial estimate of $1.5 to $1.6 trillion, now expected to be around $400 billion higher.
Thiel remarked that such high deficits at the peak of the economic cycle, rather than during a recession, indicate a troubling economic situation.
Recent figures from the Congressional Budget Office reveal a $1.9 trillion budget deficit for the first 11 months of the 2024 fiscal year, a $373 billion increase from the previous year.
Additionally, the Treasury Department reports that the national debt has reached a record $35.273 trillion.
Market anxiety is surging after President Trump’s latest move to impose sweeping tariffs, with crypto-based prediction platforms now signaling a growing belief that a U.S. recession is on the horizon.
As trade tensions rise and economic signals grow harder to read, America’s largest banks are posting quarterly results that reflect both resilience and caution.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has raised alarms over a possible U.S. recession, warning that the downturn may have already begun.
China has fired back at the United States with a sharp tariff increase, raising duties on U.S. imports to 125% effective April 12, 2025.