Billionaire Warns of Slowing U.S. Growth, Sees 45% Chance of Downturn

Despite recent signs of economic strength, billionaire investor Steve Cohen remains cautious about the U.S. outlook, warning that growth may be slowing more than the markets care to admit.

Speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, the Point72 Asset Management founder estimated a 45% chance the U.S. economy could slip into a downturn.

While not currently in recession, Cohen believes momentum is fading and predicts GDP growth may hover around 1.5% in 2026 — a rate he calls “decent, but far from spectacular.”

His comments come as Wall Street tries to make sense of the S&P 500’s sharp rebound from its April lows, a move Cohen described as unusually fast and reminiscent of post-pandemic rallies. Yet he warned that markets don’t always march higher and could easily stall or retrace by up to 15% in the coming months.

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On monetary policy, Cohen expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, especially with inflationary pressure likely to rise due to newly implemented tariffs. “They’ll be watching price stability closely,” he noted.

Cohen’s cautious tone echoes broader concerns across the financial world. Just last week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also warned that recession risks remain elevated, despite a recent trade agreement with China aimed at cooling economic tensions.

Alexander Stefanov