Despite recent signs of economic strength, billionaire investor Steve Cohen remains cautious about the U.S. outlook, warning that growth may be slowing more than the markets care to admit.
Speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, the Point72 Asset Management founder estimated a 45% chance the U.S. economy could slip into a downturn.
While not currently in recession, Cohen believes momentum is fading and predicts GDP growth may hover around 1.5% in 2026 — a rate he calls “decent, but far from spectacular.”
His comments come as Wall Street tries to make sense of the S&P 500’s sharp rebound from its April lows, a move Cohen described as unusually fast and reminiscent of post-pandemic rallies. Yet he warned that markets don’t always march higher and could easily stall or retrace by up to 15% in the coming months.
On monetary policy, Cohen expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, especially with inflationary pressure likely to rise due to newly implemented tariffs. “They’ll be watching price stability closely,” he noted.
Cohen’s cautious tone echoes broader concerns across the financial world. Just last week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also warned that recession risks remain elevated, despite a recent trade agreement with China aimed at cooling economic tensions.
U.S. inflation accelerated in June, dealing a potential setback to expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In a surprising long-term performance shift, gold has officially outpaced the U.S. stock market over the past 25 years—dividends included.
The United States has rolled out a broad set of new import tariffs this week, targeting over 30 countries and economic blocs in a sharp escalation of its trade protection measures, according to list from WatcherGuru.
After a week of record-setting gains in U.S. markets, investors are shifting focus to a quieter yet crucial stretch of macroeconomic developments.