Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally Into 2025 Before Market Correction

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin and the crypto market will experience a strong rally leading into Q1 2025, fueled by shifts in U.S. liquidity under the incoming Trump administration.

Hayes attributes this optimism to expected pro-business policies and a $612 billion liquidity boost from the U.S. Treasury, which he believes will propel Bitcoin to new highs before a market correction occurs.

Hayes highlights that the Treasury’s spending, particularly if the debt ceiling is resolved, will inject significant funds into the market, offsetting the Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative tightening. He notes that past liquidity surges, such as those in 2022, helped Bitcoin reverse its downward trends, and a similar dynamic could unfold in early 2025.

However, Hayes warns that this bullish phase may not last beyond March. Tightening liquidity conditions and reduced fiscal support, coupled with the tax season draining Treasury reserves, could lead to a sharp market pullback. He compares the potential correction to Bitcoin’s decline in mid-2024 after peaking at $73,000.

Despite the expected challenges later in 2025, Hayes remains optimistic about the sector’s future. His firm, Maelstrom, is focusing on decentralized science (DeSci) projects, betting on innovative blockchain applications to drive growth beyond the current cycle.