Are We Witnessing the Final Bitcoin Cycle as We Know It?

Swan, a Bitcoin-focused financial firm, has issued a striking market update suggesting that the current BTC cycle isn’t just another repeat of the past—it might be the last of its kind.

Unlike previous bull runs where Bitcoin saw explosive growth during the third year of its four-year cycle, 2025 is unfolding differently. Price action has been tame, lacking the typical surge that once defined these phases. But according to Swan, this calm masks a deeper structural shift.

Veteran holders appear to be cashing out above $100,000, while major institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are moving in—not to trade, but to hold. Swan’s CIO Ben Werkman explains that this new class of buyers is fundamentally different: they’re locking Bitcoin away in long-term portfolios, not looking for exit points.

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Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy echoed this view, stating that the speculative crowd is leaving and being replaced by players with long-term conviction and no plans to sell.

Swan also points to a generational shift in capital. As wealth is passed from older generations to Millennials, Bitcoin is increasingly favored as the store of value of choice—unlike gold or equities before it. At the same time, global economic signals, such as rising bond yields alongside a weakening dollar, are amplifying Bitcoin’s role as a hedge.

Their conclusion is stark: this may be the final rotation where Bitcoin changes hands before becoming increasingly illiquid. Once institutions take control of supply, those who sell now might never get another shot.

Alexander Stefanov

With over 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a seasoned content creator and market analyst dedicated to making digital assets more accessible and understandable. He specializes in breaking down complex crypto trends, analyzing market movements, and producing insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and seasoned investors. Alexander has built a reputation for delivering timely and accurate analysis, while keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies, and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm belief that widespread education is key to accelerating global crypto adoption.