Altcoin Rally May Be Closer Than It Seems—But This Cycle Looks Very Different

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has shared a new outlook on the elusive altcoin season, arguing that while a breakout could be on the way, it won’t resemble the explosive runs of previous market cycles.

Deutscher says he built an AI-driven model called the Altcoin Rally Score (ARS) to help identify when a true altcoin surge might begin. After comparing it against past bull runs, the model suggested that the conditions this cycle are significantly different from those in 2017 or 2021.

In previous cycles, altcoins soared by thousands of percent. But aside from brief spikes in April and late last year, most have underperformed relative to Bitcoin. Deutscher attributes this to several factors: tighter monetary policy, institutional preference for Bitcoin, Ethereum’s struggle to outperform BTC, and fading interest from retail investors after repeated scandals.

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His ARS model tracks four indicators: a decline in Bitcoin dominance, a breakout in the ETH/BTC ratio, a rising altcoin index, and improving retail sentiment and liquidity. None have fully aligned yet.

Even when they do, Deutscher expects a shorter, more selective rally—focused on specific sectors—due to limited liquidity and oversupply of new altcoins. In short, the next altcoin season may arrive quietly and look nothing like the last.

Alexander Stefanov

With over 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a seasoned content creator and market analyst dedicated to making digital assets more accessible and understandable. He specializes in breaking down complex crypto trends, analyzing market movements, and producing insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and seasoned investors. Alexander has built a reputation for delivering timely and accurate analysis, while keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies, and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm belief that widespread education is key to accelerating global crypto adoption.