Recession Odds Still High if Trump Doesn’t Reverse Course, Analyst Warns

Despite solid employment data and improving trade sentiment, BCA Research’s Peter Berezin isn’t convinced the U.S. is in the clear.

In his latest market outlook, Berezin said the economy remains fragile—and avoiding a recession may depend more on political choices than economic fundamentals.

He argues that a less protectionist stance, particularly from Donald Trump if he returns to office, could help ease pressure on growth. Loosening tariffs, combined with continued complacency in bond markets over rising deficits, might delay or prevent a downturn—but Berezin doubts that scenario will play out cleanly.

The strategist’s warning came days after the U.S. reported stronger-than-expected May job growth, with 139,000 positions added and unemployment steady at 4.2%.

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However, Berezin sees concerning similarities to past pre-recession periods, pointing to a softening in consumer confidence and persistent signs of financial strain across credit cards, auto loans, and commercial real estate.

He maintains that the economy remains vulnerable and that a single shock—economic or political—could set off a negative chain reaction.

Though recent progress in U.S.-China trade relations has slightly lowered recession odds, Berezin believes the danger hasn’t passed and that structural risks continue to mount beneath the surface.

Alexander Stefanov

With over 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a seasoned content creator and market analyst dedicated to making digital assets more accessible and understandable. He specializes in breaking down complex crypto trends, analyzing market movements, and producing insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and seasoned investors. Alexander has built a reputation for delivering timely and accurate analysis, while keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies, and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm belief that widespread education is key to accelerating global crypto adoption.