Tariffs Threaten to Stall U.S. Growth in 2025, Recovery Not Expected Until 2026

The U.S. economy may be closer to a downturn than many realize, according to Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo.

While he’s not officially predicting a recession just yet, Bryson says current conditions are fragile enough that it wouldn’t take much to tip the balance.

Speaking in a recent CNBC interview, Bryson noted that the economy is “skating close” to contraction, with any additional shock—be it policy-driven or external—potentially pushing it into recession territory. His comments come as various indicators begin flashing signs of strain, particularly under the weight of newly imposed tariffs.

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Looking ahead, Bryson expects 2025 to be marked by slower growth, largely due to trade disruptions and protectionist measures. However, he sees brighter prospects for 2026, pointing to expected monetary easing, moderate fiscal stimulus, and regulatory rollbacks as sources of recovery.

He also anticipates a significant policy shift from the Federal Reserve. As higher tariffs begin to dent employment and economic activity, Bryson believes the Fed could respond by cutting interest rates dramatically—potentially bringing them down to around 1% within a year from the current 4.25%–4.50% range.

If unemployment begins to rise as expected later this year, that may be the signal the central bank needs to shift gears and begin stimulating the economy more aggressively.

Alexander Stefanov

With over 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a seasoned content creator and market analyst dedicated to making digital assets more accessible and understandable. He specializes in breaking down complex crypto trends, analyzing market movements, and producing insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and seasoned investors. Alexander has built a reputation for delivering timely and accurate analysis, while keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies, and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm belief that widespread education is key to accelerating global crypto adoption.