A familiar pattern is beginning to emerge in financial markets: soaring tech valuations, investor euphoria, and a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. For some analysts, it’s starting to look like 1999 all over again.
The Nasdaq 100, when adjusted against the broader money supply (M2), has returned to a valuation ratio not seen in over two decades — a ratio that, historically, marked the top of the Dot-com bubble. This comparison, while technical, sends a clear message: tech stocks may be climbing faster than the economic fundamentals can justify.
Unlike simple price charts, this ratio accounts for how much liquidity has entered the system. And once again, valuations appear to be stretching far beyond those monetary boundaries.
Behind much of the current momentum is the artificial intelligence boom, which has propelled companies like Palantir into the spotlight with sharp revenue jumps and soaring stock prices. But this rapid ascent has prompted renewed debate over whether excitement is outpacing reality.
The surge in AI and chipmaker stocks has created a wave of optimism reminiscent of the early internet days — when investors were more focused on vision than viability.
Compounding the pressure are political tremors. President Trump has hinted at sweeping tariffs targeting European goods, along with a threat to slap a 25% tax on iPhones bought in the U.S. These comments rattled markets, dragging down Apple shares and injecting fresh uncertainty into an already fragile climate.
Throughout 2025, the tech sector has shown signs of instability, swinging between sharp rallies and sudden selloffs. And with valuations now revisiting historic danger zones, some fear that the next leg down may be more than just a correction — it could be a reckoning.
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