Gold Could Soar to $4,500 Amid Fed Uncertainty, Says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term outlook on gold, projecting that the metal could approach $3,880 per ounce by late 2025 if recession fears take hold.

The investment bank sees heightened demand from ETF inflows and central bank stockpiling as key drivers behind this potential rally.

In a more typical economic scenario, Goldman still expects gold to perform strongly, estimating a rise to $3,700 by the end of next year and potentially reaching $4,000 by mid-2026. But in a more dramatic “tail-risk” case—where investors begin to question the Fed’s independence or suspect shifts in U.S. monetary reserves—prices could spike closer to $4,500.

Gold has already had a strong run in 2025, gaining over 26% year-to-date and currently trading around $3,315. However, some analysts note the metal is nearing technically overbought territory, hinting that a short-term pullback might be due.

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Silver, on the other hand, is not expected to keep pace. Goldman points to weak industrial demand, especially from China’s solar sector, as a drag on the metal. The bank forecasts the gold-to-silver ratio will remain high, further highlighting gold’s dominance as a defensive asset.

In light of limited upside in equities and ongoing economic risks, Goldman’s Daan Struyven has reiterated his view that gold remains one of the more reliable hedges. He also suggested holding oil put options to brace for lingering recession pressures in the months ahead.

Alexander Stefanov