The firm suggests that several forces \u2013 improving liquidity, shifting macro expectations, and a growing probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts \u2013 are beginning to line up in favor of digital assets.<\/p>\n
As of December 4, traders are assigning a 92% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates, a dramatic jump that historically fuels renewed interest in crypto and other risk-oriented assets. Coinbase argues that this shift, combined with patterns they identified earlier this year, could set the stage for a December rebound.<\/p>\n
Back in October, the firm predicted a positioning reset and expected a soft November before a potential reversal into December. With those conditions now playing out almost point for point, Coinbase believes the market may be sitting at the front end of that inflection.<\/p>\n
\nIt\u2019s beginning to look a lot like a recovery.<\/p>\n
We think crypto could be poised for a December recovery as liquidity improves, Fed cut odds jump to 92% (as of Dec 4), and macro tailwinds build.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s why:
\u2022 Liquidity is recovering
\u2022 The supposed \u201cAI bubble\u201d hasn\u2019t burst\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/CpbfijdKWQ<\/a><\/p>\n\u2014 Coinbase Institutional \ud83d\udee1\ufe0f (@CoinbaseInsto) December 5, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n