{"id":180858,"date":"2025-11-20T15:58:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T13:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/en\/?p=180858"},"modified":"2025-11-20T15:58:28","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T13:58:28","slug":"u-s-shutdown-triggers-historic-data-blackout-december-rate-cut-now-in-doubt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/en\/u-s-shutdown-triggers-historic-data-blackout-december-rate-cut-now-in-doubt\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Shutdown Triggers Historic Data Blackout – December Rate Cut Now in Doubt"},"content":{"rendered":"

The historic U.S. federal government shutdown has forced the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to cancel the October employment report altogether, something that has never happened before.<\/p>\n

In a market driven almost entirely by expectations of Federal Reserve policy, the absence of labor data has created the one thing investors fear most: uncertainty.<\/p>\n

A Missing Jobs Report That Changed Market Psychology Overnight<\/h2>\n

For weeks, traders assumed the Federal Reserve would soften its stance before the end of the year. A December rate cut was priced in at nearly 100% at one point \u2013 a near-consensus. But with no October employment figures to verify the economy\u2019s trajectory, confidence evaporated.<\/p>\n

According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a December rate cut has crashed to 31.8%, with the probability of interest rates staying exactly where they are now climbing to 68.2%.<\/p>\n

Markets didn\u2019t need a speech from the Fed \u2013 the missing data became the message.<\/p>\n

November Jobs Report Delayed as Well<\/h2>\n

The fallout isn\u2019t limited to October. The November employment report<\/a><\/strong> \u2013 originally due on December 5 \u2013 has now been pushed back to December 16, widening the blackout period in which major economic decisions must be made with missing information.<\/p>\n

Private analysts and fund managers have begun warning that the shutdown may interrupt multiple monthly data cycles, further weakening the Fed\u2019s ability to determine whether the economy is overheating or cooling.<\/p>\n

The Only Remaining Clue: September Numbers<\/h2>\n

With October reporting canceled, investors were left with one last point of reference \u2013 September\u2019s labor data, finally published after its own delay caused by the shutdown.<\/p>\n

\n
Read More:<\/h5>\n \n
\n \n \n <\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Crypto Braces for 2026 ETF Boom as Current Funds Bleed Capital<\/h4>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

The numbers weren\u2019t comforting:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Nonfarm payrolls: 119k jobs added<\/li>\n
  • Expectations were 53k<\/li>\n
  • August showed only 22k<\/li>\n
  • Unemployment rate: 4.4%, slightly higher than the 4.3% expected<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Normally, stronger payroll growth would suggest economic strength \u2013 but without fresh October or timely November numbers, markets can\u2019t judge whether September represents momentum or a fluke.<\/p>\n

    What Happens Next<\/h2>\n

    The Federal Reserve is now expected to enter the December meeting without a complete picture of labor conditions, creating a scenario Wall Street rarely experiences \u2013 interest-rate policy without jobs data.<\/p>\n

    The shutdown didn\u2019t just halt government operations \u2013 it has disrupted the single most watched economic signal in the United States.<\/p>\n

    Why Investors Are Nervous<\/h2>\n
      \n
    • No October report \u2013 uncertainty about labor trends<\/li>\n
    • November report delayed \u2013 uncertainty will spill into December<\/li>\n
    • Uncertainty \u2013 lower confidence in rate-cut expectations<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      One month ago, the market viewed a December rate cut as a sure thing. Now it looks like a long shot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Investors were preparing for a normal jobs-report week – and instead watched one of the most reliable economic indicators in the world go dark.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":83744,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[243],"coin_category":[],"class_list":["post-180858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-federal-reserve"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nU.S. Shutdown Triggers Historic Data Blackout - December Rate Cut Now in Doubt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investors were preparing for a normal jobs-report week - and instead watched one of the most reliable economic indicators in the world go dark.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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