{"id":171899,"date":"2025-09-23T12:10:17","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T09:10:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/en\/?p=171899"},"modified":"2025-09-23T12:11:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T09:11:29","slug":"bitcoin-price-prediction-from-arthur-hayes-why-3-4-million-isnt-fantasy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/en\/bitcoin-price-prediction-from-arthur-hayes-why-3-4-million-isnt-fantasy\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Price Prediction From Arthur Hayes: Why $3.4 Million Isn\u2019t Fantasy"},"content":{"rendered":"

His conclusion is dramatic: if Donald Trump enacts the fiscal and monetary playbook envisioned by Treasury Secretary Buffalo Bill Bessent, Bitcoin could soar to $3.4 million by 2028.<\/p>\n

Yield curve control and money printing<\/h2>\n

Hayes frames his prediction around a single policy lever, yield curve control (YCC). He notes that during World War II, the Federal Reserve capped short- and long-term bond yields to ensure cheap financing for government borrowing. That experiment, he argues, could repeat under Trump\u2019s second term, as the Treasury looks for ways to reindustrialize America and fund a vast fiscal expansion.<\/p>\n

The mechanics, Hayes explains, are straightforward. The Fed could lower the cost of short-term borrowing by cutting rates on bank reserves and discount window lending, while using its balance sheet to purchase bonds and suppress long-term yields. This would push credit creation away from Wall Street and back into regional banks, boosting lending to small and medium-sized businesses. The outcome: an industrial revival fueled by cheap debt, but also an explosion in money supply.<\/p>\n

Why Bitcoin is central to the thesis<\/h2>\n

The linchpin of Hayes\u2019 argument is that YCC and unlimited Treasury issuance will debase the U.S. dollar. As the government issues trillions in new debt and the Fed absorbs it with freshly printed reserves, investors will look for scarce alternatives. Gold and Bitcoin, Hayes argues, are the natural beneficiaries.
\nUnlike gold, however, Bitcoin\u2019s supply is fixed at 21 million coins, making it especially sensitive to credit growth. During COVID-19, Hayes observed that every $1 of new credit corresponded with a steep percentage rise in Bitcoin\u2019s price. Extrapolating that relationship into Trump\u2019s projected spending wave, Hayes arrives at his $3.4 million per Bitcoin target by 2028.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Politics, the Fed, and timing<\/h2>\n

Of course, Hayes admits his forecast depends heavily on politics. For the plan to work, Trump would need loyalists on the Fed\u2019s Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee. With those votes, the administration could force lower rates, greenlight aggressive Treasury purchases, and cement control of monetary policy.<\/p>\n

The timeline is tight. Trump must lock in a majority before the 2026 midterm elections. Hayes argues that resignations, scandals, and new appointments could tilt the board in Trump\u2019s favor, making YCC not just a possibility but a likelihood.<\/p>\n

\u201cFastest horse\u201d in the race<\/h2>\n

While Hayes concedes that Bitcoin may never literally hit $3.4 million, he stresses the directional bet is what matters. With gold already breaking records above $3,700 an ounce, Bitcoin is still only around $115,000. If trillions in new credit flow through the system, Hayes sees Bitcoin as the \u201cfastest horse,\u201d outpacing other stores of value thanks to its digital nature and global accessibility.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhether it\u2019s $500,000, $1 million, or $3 million, the point is that Bitcoin will rise dramatically as America prints its way into another industrial age,\u201d Hayes wrote.<\/p>\n

\n
Read More:<\/h5>\n \n
\n \n \n <\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n

<\/h4>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Why this prediction matters<\/h2>\n

Hayes\u2019 analysis blends history with current politics, highlighting how structural shifts in monetary policy could create extraordinary conditions for crypto markets. His model isn\u2019t based on speculative sentiment alone but on the mechanics of debt issuance, banking incentives, and currency debasement.
\nFor long-term investors, the message is clear: if Trump follows through with YCC and large-scale fiscal spending, Bitcoin could decouple from its past volatility and anchor itself as a cornerstone of global finance.<\/p>\n

Until then, Bitcoin remains tethered to the political chessboard in Washington, the Fed\u2019s decisions on rates, and global demand for U.S. debt. But for Hayes, the direction is undeniable. \u201cThese crackers ain\u2019t playin\u2019,\u201d he quipped, underscoring his conviction that politics will drive a new era of monetary expansion\u2014and with it, a historic bull run for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of crypto\u2019s most outspoken commentators, has released a sweeping new analysis that ties U.S. monetary politics directly to Bitcoin\u2019s future trajectory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":108989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[72,424,234,243,224,108,122],"coin_category":[],"class_list":["post-171899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-crypto","tag-donald-trump","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gold","tag-price","tag-trump"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Price Prediction From Arthur Hayes: Why $3.4 Million Isn\u2019t Fantasy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of crypto\u2019s most outspoken commentators, has 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