{"id":155284,"date":"2025-04-20T20:02:36","date_gmt":"2025-04-20T17:02:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/en\/?p=155284"},"modified":"2025-04-20T20:02:36","modified_gmt":"2025-04-20T17:02:36","slug":"recession-odds-jump-on-polymarket-following-tariff-moves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/en\/recession-odds-jump-on-polymarket-following-tariff-moves\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession Odds Jump on Polymarket Following Tariff Moves"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The probability of an economic downturn in 2025 has jumped significantly, triggering concern among traders and economists alike.<\/p>\n<p>On-chain betting site Polymarket, known for its unconventional but often accurate forecasts, now places the odds of a 2025 recession at 57%. That\u2019s a sharp increase from just a week ago when the chances had briefly dipped to 44%. The platform previously predicted Trump\u2019s return to the White House, lending weight to its rising influence on market sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>Since taking office again, Trump has revived a protectionist stance, implementing aggressive tariffs\u201425% on steel and aluminum and an eye-popping 245% on Chinese goods. This rapid policy shift has introduced new uncertainty into an already fragile global economy. Polymarket shows recession contracts trading higher, while \u201cno recession\u201d outcomes are being priced lower, reflecting the growing nervousness in the crypto-linked prediction space.<\/p>\n<p><div class=\"read-more pb-3 pt-3 pt-md-2 px-3 my-4 border bg-light\">\n    <h5 class=\"text-uppercase border-bottom mb-3 pb-1\">Read More:<\/h5>\n    <a class=\"article row post-155267\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/en\/pi-coin-sees-price-boost-as-network-unveils-long-awaited-token-strategy\/\" title=\"Pi Coin Sees Price Boost as Network Unveils Long-Awaited Token Strategy\">\n        <div class=\"contentRight col-4\">\n            <span class=\"imgContainer mt-0\">\n                <img class=\"image img-defer\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Pi-Network-240x170.webp\">\n            <\/span>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"contentLeft col-8\">\n            <h4 class=\"title mb-0\">Pi Coin Sees Price Boost as Network Unveils Long-Awaited Token Strategy<\/h4>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Investment banks are also growing uneasy. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its recession outlook to 45%, and JPMorgan has gone further, assigning a 60% risk. Trump, however, remains firm in his belief that tariffs are a necessary tool to address trade imbalances, calling them \u201cmedicine\u201d that the country must take.<\/p>\n<p>Chances of a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks also look slim. Polymarket traders now estimate only a 38% likelihood of a deal being reached by June. At the same time, there\u2019s a strong consensus\u2014over 90%\u2014that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in the near term.<\/p>\n<p>Economists are now sounding the alarm on growth prospects. A new Reuters poll shows the risk of recession in the next year has surged to nearly 50%, doubling from the previous month. Expectations for 2025 GDP growth have been slashed from 2.2% to just 1.4%, the biggest downgrade in over a year. Analysts point to growing uncertainty under Trump\u2019s leadership, where rapid policy shifts are making it harder for businesses to plan and invest.<\/p>\n<p>Even the digital asset space, which had rallied initially during Trump\u2019s return, is starting to feel the pressure. The total crypto market cap is holding above $2.6 trillion but has shown signs of strain. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has lost over 11% in value over the past two months and is now trading around $85,000. Daily trading volume has also plunged, falling by nearly a third in the last 24 hours.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market anxiety is surging after President Trump\u2019s latest move to impose sweeping tariffs, with crypto-based prediction platforms now signaling a growing belief that a U.S. recession is on the horizon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":32254,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[72,424,243,122],"coin_category":[],"class_list":["post-155284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-bitcoin","tag-crypto","tag-federal-reserve","tag-trump"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Recession 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